Weekly Update 1 | Friday, March 28
The weekly update on the Canadian election provides information on trends and dynamics observed in the information ecosystem (Snapshot), identifies and shares insights on information-related incidents and emerging threats (Incidents), and shares educational content, research findings and other relevant outputs from our Coalition on Information Ecosystem Resilience (Update). All facts and figures are taken from an original survey and social media data collection by the Media Ecosystem Observatory and the analysis reflects the period from March 23 to March 27.
SNAPSHOT
The 45th Canadian election has started with major concerns about information manipulation and foreign interference. This week, we have seen concerns about Carney and his relationship to China, Poilievre and the role India played in helping him win the Conservative leadership race, denials of foreign interference, fake news and AI-generated websites, crypto scams and conspiracies using generative AI likenesses, and of course a looming concern about influence and interference in Canada by the United States. This election is likely to continue to be fraught with both information manipulation and extensive, and sometimes misplaced, claims of election interference.
Tariffs, Trump, and the Shadow of U.S. Interference
The Canadian election unfolds under the shadow of Donald Trump’s second presidency, his unpredictable use of tariffs, and his fixation on Canada becoming the 51st state. Surveys collected since the writ dropped demonstrate how this issue set has eclipsed all other important election topics in the minds of Canadians: when asked about a set of typical election issues and how frequently Canadians think about each one, nearly half of Canadians (47%) think about ‘Donald Trump and tariffs’ daily, more than 10 percentage points larger than the economy (36%).
This concern extends into the information space: when asked which countries attempt to interfere with Canadian politics and elections through “covert, deceptive and sometimes threatening means”, Canadians now firmly see the US as the largest culprit (68%) surpassing China, Russia, and India.
This sentiment is echoed online, where the most engaged-with posts on social media related to Canadian politics are patriotic and critical of Trump, asserting that Canada won’t “back off” and “we will never be the 51st state” (an opinion held by 93% of Canadians). There is, however, significant disagreement about how Canada should handle Trump: for example, Mark Carney trended on X by leveraging Mike Myers’ viral SNL “Elbows Up” rallying cry, most of the posts that gained traction, however, mocked the slogan.
INFORMATION INCIDENTS
During the election, we report on information incidents that could mislead the public and disrupt the democratic processes. Generally we are concerned with covert information manipulation and foreign interference efforts as opposed to instances of influence which are definitionally overt and public. This week, we have identified three minor incidents that we are monitoring closely. Click here to learn more about our incident response thresholds.
▶️AI-generated ‘clickbait’ content masquerading as legitimate news sources:
Promoted posts on Facebook, Instagram, and X are using fake news websites to imitate news stories, real journalists, and reputable news sources (e.g., CBC and CTV) and in several cases have used AI-generated images of politicians and contain links leading to cryptocurrency scams. Most recently, a (paid) sponsored post has been circulating on Instagram using AI-generated images and the CBC header, claiming the detainment and assassination of Carney. Canadians should be cautious about links masquerading as Canadian news stories, especially on Facebook and Instagram where reputable news sites are blocked.
▶️ Suspicious accounts on X:
Multiple anonymous accounts posting a very high volume of Canadian politics content on X have AI-generated profile pictures and similar inauthentic-account characteristics (e.g. profile descriptions, regularly changing profile pictures). This is typical to the X platform but we caution that these accounts may not be piloted by Canadians and may be being artificially amplified.
▶️ Suspicious Facebook groups supporting the 51st state:
Numerous large Facebook groups promoting Canada as the 51st state have appeared. Some of the larger groups have been renamed/repurposed from pre-existing groups, and in one case, several members indicate that they never intentionally joined. This may be due to bad actors purchasing dormant or largely inactive Groups and repurposing them. Canadians should ensure that and be aware of the ability to purchase and rebrand Facebook groups to make certain ideas appear more popular than they are.
VULNERABILITIES OF OUR ECOSYSTEM
Over the course of this election, we are monitoring the following characteristics of our ecosystem that render it vulnerable to information ecosystem threats:
Accessible generative AI and bots: as generative AI improves and social bots proliferate, the rising ease of creation and distribution enables a large volume of deceptive content—images, audio, video, and text—that can be impactful during key political moments like elections.
Low platform transparency: overall lack of social media platform transparency hinders the ability to detect and characterize threats as they emerge across platforms, as well as more broadly understand how information is pushed and filtered.
Lack of reliable news in many social media spaces: Since Meta’s news ban in August 2023, Canadians cannot see content posted by news organizations on Facebook and Instagram. An algorithmic and audience shift on X has also meant that news content that includes additional details as links tends to perform poorly and not be widely seen. This news vacuum invites unverified information and makes fact-checking more difficult.
Unequal power distribution: The majority of information generated and shared in our information ecosystem stems from a comparatively small number of voices who earn a disproportionate amount of the attention. This is a critical vulnerability when these sources spread unreliable, misleading or coordinated content.
Diaspora communities risk: Diaspora communities are at a greater risk of foreign manipulation. Adversarial actors use a range of tactics to manipulate diaspora opinions and actions, including intimidation and harassment, coercion through family ties and diplomatic pressure, and violent and cyber threats to suppress dissent and promote state-aligned narratives.
Canadians are advised to critically evaluate online information sources, verify claims through reliable channels, and remain cautious when encountering polarizing or emotionally charged content. Canadians should be intentional with their information consumption and cautious in engaging with information coming from unknown sources who may or may not be Canadian or be interested in supporting Canada in having a free and fair election.
If you see something, say something: if you see suspicious content online related to the Canadian election that you think is indicative of someone attempting to manipulate or mislead Canadians, take a screenshot and send us a tip via our tipline. A researcher will review each one.
COALITION RESOURCES
Apathy is Boring
Apathy is Boring is a non-partisan organization that supports and educates youth to be active, engaged citizens in Canada’s democracy.
Right now, they’re focused on getting young people talking about the upcoming federal election! Their initiative, Table Topics, is all about sparking meaningful conversations. It’s designed to help youth feel more confident and comfortable engaging in political dialogue—especially during this critical moment.
If you’re curious to learn more, or if you know young people who might want to feel better equipped to talk about democracy and voting, join one of their upcoming Table Topics Trainings on April 1, 7, or 9. You’ll walk away ready to lead accessible, impactful conversations in your community—whether that’s tabling at school, chatting over dinner, or hosting a podcast listening party.
THIS WEEK FROM THE TIPLINE
We have received 70 submissions since the beginning of the election on Sunday, March 23.
Two thirds of submissions involve posts on Meta and X platforms.
See something online? Say something!
👉Let us know via our Tipline