Weekly Update 4 | Friday, April 18
The weekly update on the Canadian election provides information on trends and dynamics observed in the information ecosystem (Snapshot), identifies and shares insights on information-related incidents and emerging threats (Incidents), and shares educational content, research findings and other relevant outputs from our Coalition on Information Ecosystem Resilience (Update). All facts and figures are taken from an original survey and social media data collection by the Media Ecosystem Observatory and the analysis reflects the period from April 11 to April 17.
SNAPSHOT
The Feed is the Message: How Platform Patterns Are Shaping Political Perception
Canadians are avid users of social media platforms – and, consequently, so are our electoral candidates. Much of Canadian political discourse and campaigning increasingly plays out online, providing an opportunity for in-depth analysis of what the parties are talking about, whom constituents are engaging with, and what vulnerabilities may be emerging in our information ecosystem that could impact the election.
This week, we conducted a large-scale analysis of online engagement with the federal election. We collected, aggregated and compared 1,583 federal party candidates (from CPC, LPC, NDP, PPC, BQ, and Green Party) that we could identify across five platforms (X, Instagram, Bluesky, YouTube, TikTok), representing 99% of the total candidates for these parties. To-date we have identified 897 candidates who have posted at least once, and a total of 1,538 active handles (many candidates have more than one active handle).
We analyze their 62,479 posts between March 1 and April 13, 2025 to identify the key topics candidates are focusing on (note that while we collected Facebook handles and indicate whether candidates have an account, we do not include Facebook content in this analysis due to data restrictions from that platform).
We also examined how constituents are engaging with election content across platforms and explored the broader information environments surrounding candidates. Our findings reveal significant differences in both party strategies and platform dynamics.
Candidates
We see distinct patterns of social media platform use by federal candidates. X hosts 73% of all social media posts by federal candidates, dominated by the PPC (34% of X posts) and Conservative candidates (31%). Instagram is a distant second (19% of all posts), followed by Bluesky (6%) and YouTube and TikTok (both <1%). The platforms themselves show different types of messaging: Instagram is used most for community mobilization (calls for volunteering, lawn signs), while X is more used for general political conversation, debate, and especially critique. Overall, Conservative candidates are the most active and engaged with online – their posts represent 1/3rd of all posts online from federal candidates, they garner the most likes, and leader Pierre Poilievre has more posts and likes than any other party leader. This is consistent with recent findings that Conservatives are more successful on social media in Canada. Bluesky has emerged as a prominent tool in the Liberal Party’s belt: 46% of federal candidates on Bluesky are Liberals, but they make up 81% of accounts with over 1000 followers, with Mark Carney being one of the top 400 most followed accounts on the platform.
In their posts, candidates focus on different topics. Across platforms, Conservative candidates focus on the future economic viability of the country, with recurring themes like putting Canada first and critiques of the Liberal government and the carbon tax. Posts generally emphasize a need for widespread change, economic concerns, common sense policies, and reclaiming national strength through economic security and public safety. Conservative candidates also frequently criticize the Liberals and Mark Carney. Overall, 30% of Conservative content focuses on Carney, largely driven by Pierre Poilievre: critiques of Liberal policies and his response to Trump; assertions that Carney is a political elite, has suspicious offshore investments, or has engaged in conflicts of interest; and calls for change from the Liberals. Topic focus varies on platforms: critiques of the Liberals and Carney are mostly on X and YouTube, while we see more of a focus on housing on TikTok and Instagram.
In contrast, only 5% of Liberal content mentions Poilievre, and is not usually posted by Carney himself. Rather, Liberals focus their online content on policy development, such as updates on tariff talks, and the promotion of community and cultural events. Across all platforms, Liberal candidates emphasize themes like intergovernmental cooperation, community-building and Canadian pride, and national strength in the face of international strife. The topics themselves slightly vary by platform: posts on X lean into Canada’s role in international leadership and national priorities - in relation to events such as the war in Ukraine and the Israel-Gaza conflict; Instagram and Bluesky are more community-oriented; and their minimal presence on TikTok and YouTube focuses on specific ridings and calls to vote.
Constituents
Canadians themselves engage with the election differently across platforms. We see slightly more engagement with Conservatives than Liberals on X and Instagram, while almost all political engagement on Bluesky goes to Liberal candidates (particularly leader Mark Carney, who has gained an average of 880 followers per day since the writ dropped). YouTube engagement is heavily dominated by Conservatives and TikTok by NDP candidates. Conservatives receive the most engagement by a wide margin: across platforms, they have picked up 14 million likes, while the Liberals have 8 million and the NDP 1 million.
Canadians primarily use Facebook and YouTube, for both general and political purposes. While X and Bluesky have fewer users overall, a greater proportion of their users use them for political information. Conservative supporters are the most likely to use platforms for political engagement, followed closely by Liberal and NDP voters. Conservative supporters are comparatively more likely to use X, while NDP supporters are more likely to use TikTok and Bluesky.
So far, we have seen distinct divisions between party candidates and supporters in how they use social media platforms to engage with the current election. X is heavily dominated by high volume and high engagement posts by right-wing parties and critical messaging; the Liberals have focused more on Bluesky and Instagram to mobilize their supporters and constituents. This is a potential sign of a fragmented information ecosystem: users of different platforms and supporters of different parties are getting very different content, and are likely developing distinct perspectives on how the election is unfolding.
We used “avatar” accounts – fake user accounts calibrated to appear as real left-learning, centrist, and right-leaning users – to further investigate the different information environments Canadians may be engaging with online. In an audit using 14 avatars, we found that left-leaning users were more likely to only see other left-wing candidates, while centrist and right-leaning users generally saw fewer candidate posts but more thematic content about economic sovereignty, public safety, or distrust in elites.
The significant differences between parties and platforms is potentially concerning for the health of our information ecosystem. For example, if your preferred social media platform is X, there’s a good chance you mainly see posts from Conservative candidates and consistent criticism of the Liberals — while if you mainly used Bluesky and Instagram, you would think that Mark Carney is incredibly popular and potentially be encouraged to volunteer for the campaign. In either situation, you come out with distinct perceptions of the key issues in Canada and how the election is unfolding. This kind of information divide can quickly become deep political divides, fracturing our political discourse and increasing polarization.
INFORMATION INCIDENTS
During the election, we report on information incidents that could mislead the public and disrupt the democratic processes. Generally we are concerned with covert information manipulation and foreign interference efforts as opposed to instances of influence which are definitionally overt and public. This week, we report on one moderate and two minor incidents, and close four minor incidents. Click here to learn more about our incident response thresholds.
MODERATE INCIDENT
Ongoing incident: AI-generated fake news
We continue our investigation into AI-generated sponsored posts masquerading as legitimate news articles. See our ongoing response with more detailed findings on the incident here. We continue to classify this as a moderate incident and have identified many accounts and posts with moderate-to-high exposure and engagement. The increasing sophistication and political content of the posts is concerning. Many recent posts, particularly on Facebook, explicitly mention the election and Mark Carney, and have an explicitly pro-Liberal stance. Approximately 40% of the Pages we identified have been removed by Facebook, but many of the sponsored posts remain active with more being created every day. Many of the recent Pages are using new techniques to avoid being flagged and appear as legitimate vendors. Our survey research indicates that AI-generated fake news have reached a significant portion of Canadians: 24% report having encountered the content.
MINOR INCIDENTS
New incident: “Buttongate” - Divisive buttons planted by Liberals at the Canada Strong and Free Networking (CSFN) Conference
Canadian and international news outlets recently reported on “buttongate”: two Liberal staffers planted buttons at a Conservative gathering in Ottawa that were intended to misrepresent the views of Conservative supporters. In light of this, we investigated whether there was artificial amplification of the misrepresented views or whether the news triggered widespread skepticism about election integrity. Our analysis showed there was significant online conversation about this event, with many Canadians sharing links to news articles and expressing outrage and distaste for the actions of the staffers. However, we find no evidence of artificial amplification, linkages to claims of election fraud or overall election integrity, and our initial assessment judges the conversation to be authentic.
Misrepresenting political opponents' views by planting misleading symbols are tactics frequently used in disinformation campaigns. Both their further amplification online and user reactions to the campaign being uncovered can be equally harmful. We urge all Canadians to avoid all such forms of astro-turfing and information manipulation.
Ongoing incident: Claims of election fraud
Claims of fraud, manipulation, and election rigging continue to increase as we get closer to the election. This week, there is a growing trend among commentators and candidates questioning the accuracy of polling, with merchandise labelled: “Do you believe the polls?” seen at Conservative Party rallies. These claims have been amplified by prominent social media accounts, while others have urged Canadians to avoid conspiratorial thinking. Distrust of electoral processes, including polling data, can trigger broader public skepticism regarding the integrity and results of the elections.
Our federal election survey results suggest that Canadians generally express high levels of trust in both Elections Canada as an institution and in the integrity of the 2025 federal election results. The average trust rating for Elections Canada was 2.92 on a 1-4 scale (N=4,798), placing it among the more trusted institutions, just below medical doctors and scientists, and above elected officials, journalists, and the news media. Similarly, 3 in 4 respondents report a fair amount or a lot of trust in electoral integrity (average 2.97 on a 1-4 scale).
Throughout the electoral process, we encourage the Canadian public to visit the Elections Canada website to better understand online information safety and electoral security.
CLOSED INCIDENTS
WeChat posts from state-directed media focused on the Canadian election
Last week we reported extensively on a flagged channel (Youli-youmian) on WeChat sharing some content about the Canadian election. An account we flagged, that was posting potentially misleading narratives about the election, has not posted about Canada since 25 March and only one other Canada-discussing post has appeared in the largest state-affiliated channels such as People’s Daily, Xinhua News, Chinanews.com, and people.cn. Overall we assess discussion on Canadian election-related topics is very limited on state-controlled news channels on WeChat. We have closed this investigation, but continue to monitor these public channels for any sign of coordinated activity to influence Canadians during the election.
Deepfakes of Canadian politicians
We continue to pay close attention to deep-fakes (AI-generated images and videos) of Canadian politicians. This week, we collaborated with the Pol Comm Tech Lab to evaluate the prevalence of deep-fakes, specifically on TikTok. We analyzed nearly 700 TikTok accounts that frequently post about the election but are not established political entities or organizations. We found that approximately 30% of these accounts are faceless or publish primarily AI-generated content. This means that people who use TikTok for political information are likely to see AI-generated content which is often negative, includes mis or dis information, and is repetitive. This can give viewers a sense of a more polluted information environment. Despite this, our joint assessment is that convincing deep-fakes of politicians are fairly uncommon while obviously fake AI-generated content of politicians is frequently observed. Besides the fake news articles featured above, generative AI content of politicians tends to be satirical and fall under the category of “memes” rather than intended to deceive which makes it less likely to affect the election. We are closing this investigation, but will continue to monitor the use of deep-fakes and generative AI in political content.
American-Canadian advocacy for 51st statehood
Last week, we reopened our investigation into a network of websites and Facebook Pages expressing enthusiasm for Canada, specifically Alberta, to secede to or be annexed by the United States. Our concern was that the secessionist movement may have been receiving funding or direction from Americans. Indeed, some of the Facebook page administrators are American, while some of the Canadians flaunt their connections with the Republican Party. As of this time, however, we cannot conclude that this movement is taking direction or material support from south of the border. We are closing this investigation, but will continue to monitor the 51st statehood theme during the election.
False Carney-Epstein connection promoted by potential bots
Last week, we reported that 195 potentially-inauthentic accounts were being used to push false claims about a connection between Liberal leader Mark Carney and Jeffrey Epstein. This week, we conducted further analysis of these accounts to evaluate the nature of these accounts further. We determined that a large number are likely bots. However, we judge their activity to have a negligible impact on the election and the overall information ecosystem and are closing the incident. We encourage Canadians to look out for web links shared without context or similar messaging from multiple accounts, especially when viewing the replies to popular posts, consult educational resources on bots, and report suspicious accounts using our tipline.
If you see something, say something: if you see suspicious content online related to the Canadian election that you think is indicative of someone attempting to manipulate or mislead Canadians, take a screenshot and send us a tip via our tipline. A researcher will review each one.
THIS WEEK FROM THE TIPLINE
We have received a total of 194 submissions during the election period including 39 new submissions this week.
74% of the new submissions involve posts on Facebook and the remainder of 25% included Instagram, Bluesky and News Outlet/Websites.
The submissions form this week focused on three dominant topics*:
Posts flagged for spreading false or misleading information about elections, especially targeting Mark Carney and CBC.
Political ads or narratives around tax cuts, low income, and economic policies, often linked to “Truenorth” or similar platforms.
Concerns related to nationalist groups/pages sharing fake or misleading content, with emphasis on Canadian identity and Carney’s role.
*Note: The topics submitted reflect common user concerns; while some may lead to potential incidents within the media ecosystem, not all necessarily indicate imminent threats or events.